Irakli Kobakhidze: “Unemployment has halved throughout the country.”
Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
The unemployment rate amounted to 16.4% in 2023 whereas in 2012, it constituted 26.7%. Therefore, whilst unemployment has decreased under the current government, it was not by half.
The long-term decrease in unemployment did not occur only due to an increase in employment as a decline in the labour force further contributed to this reduction. To clarify, a significant number of Georgian citizens decided to stop seeking employment, either exiting the labour force altogether or leaving the country, resulting in a decline in the unemployment rate.
Hence, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
Analysis
Prime Minister and the head of the Georgian Dream’s election office, Irakli Kobakhidze, stated: “Unemployment has halved throughout the country under the governance of the Georgian Dream.”
GeoStat records labour force statistics according to the methodology of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of unemployed individuals to the economically active population (labour force). The labour force includes employed individuals and those seeking employment according to GeoStat’s methodology. An individual who is neither employed nor seeking employment (has not sought a job in the four weeks prior to being surveyed) is considered to be outside the labour force and is thus excluded from the unemployment figure. Hence, the unemployment rate can decrease when the labour force declines without an actual rise in employment. It is essential to assess the labour force and employment metrics to accurately evaluate the unemployment rate.
We only analysed the data from 2012 to 2023 as the annual data for 2024 are not yet available.
The unemployment rate constituted 16.4% in 2023 according to GeoStat. This figure encompasses economically active individuals who are not yet employed but are actively seeking jobs. The unemployment rate amounted to 26.7% in 2012 when the Georgian Dream came into power, suggesting that the aforementioned metric decreased by 10.3 percentage points or by 1.6 times over the 11-year period. Therefore, whilst unemployment has indeed decreased under the current governance, it has not been halved.
Additionally, the decrease in unemployment was not only due to an increase in employment; it was also influenced by a decrease in the labour force which is an adverse occurrence. The economically active population has significantly decreased in the long term – many Georgian citizens have been excluded from the unemployment rate either because they stopped seeking employment or left the country.
The number of economically active citizens peaked (1675.6 thousand) in 2015. However, the labour force declined by 102.8 thousand from 2016 to 2019. Despite the number of employed individuals decreasing by 12.6 thousand, the unemployment rate decreased from 21.9% to 17.6% between 2015 and 2019 due to a decrease in the economically active population.
The number of economically active citizens constituted 1596.3 thousand in 2023. Whilst this figure exceeds the 2019-2022 data, it is still lower than the figures observed from 2012 to 2018. Namely, the economically active population in 2023 was 79.3 thousand lower as compared to 2015 and 58.4 thousand lower as compared to 2012. Thus, the labour force has declined during the governance of the Georgian Dream which has contributed to the aforementioned decline in the unemployment rate.
The employment metrics (the number of employed individuals, the employment rate) have fluctuated under the current government, exhibiting both upward and downward trends (refer to Graph 1). However, the employment figures experienced an improvement in 2023. The number of employed individuals rose by approximately 50.9 thousand, or 4% in 2023, as compared to the year before. Furthermore, the number of employed citizens exceeds the 2012 figure by approximately 10% (122.4 thousand individuals).
The employment rate (percentage of employed individuals in the population over the age of 15) amounted to 44.5% in 2023, surpassing the figure from the previous year by 1.6 percentage points. Moreover, the employment rate has increased by 4.9 percentage points as compared to 2012.
Whilst the employment figures have shown a positive long-term trajectory under the governance of the Georgian Dream, the scale of the aforementioned increase does not entirely offset the decrease in the labour force. This can be attributed to the fact that the decrease in the unemployment rate was influenced by both an increase in employment and a reduction in the labour force.
Graph 1: Labour Force Statistics from 2012 to 2023
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
Thus, observing the long-term trends, the employment/unemployment figures improved from 2013 to 2015. However, the number of economically active citizens has been drastically decreasing since 2015, leading to a simultaneous decline in the unemployment rate, without an actual increase in employment. The employment/unemployment metrics significantly deteriorated during the pandemic period. The labour force and employment figures improved notably in 2023 and 2023, resulting in a decrease in the unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate decreased from 26.7% to 16.4% or by 1.6 times as compared to 2012. Therefore, claiming that the unemployment rate has halved is an overestimation. Additionally, the decline in the unemployment rate was influenced by both an increase in employment and a decrease in the labour force – individuals either left the country or stopped seeking employment. Considering all of the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
